European Central Bank President Lagarde: Potential inflation and inflation continue to return to the target in the same direction.US President-elect Trump: If it cannot be approved, it is not excluded to use recess appointments to fill cabinet vacancies. It is "possible" to veto the budget or appropriation that does not conform to the newly established government efficiency department.French Foreign Ministry spokesman: It is too early to discuss lifting EU sanctions against Syria.
Spot gold fell 1% to $2,690.81. COMEX silver futures fell 1.5% in the day to $32.47 per ounce.Royal Bank of Canada: The European Central Bank may move towards negative real interest rate. Royal Bank of Canada BlueBay Asset Management said that the European Central Bank may cut the interest rate below 2% next year, which the agency estimated to be a short-term neutral interest rate. Kaspar Hense, senior portfolio manager of the institution, said in a report that the core inflation rate is expected to be around 2.5% in the first half of 2025, which means that the real interest rate will be negative. He said that under the influence of unfavorable factors such as trade, continuous competitive pressure from other countries and financial problems, this should play a moderate supporting role in the economy.European Central Bank President Lagarde: Labor cost growth will slow down.
European members of NATO are considering increasing the proportion of military expenditure. On the 12th, several European officials reported that some European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are considering increasing the proportion of national defense expenditure in their gross domestic product (GDP), from the current 2% to 3%.The rise in food prices has pushed the wholesale inflation in the United States to accelerate unexpectedly. The prospect of interest rate cuts next year is uncertain. The wholesale inflation rate in the United States unexpectedly rose in November, and the soaring egg price masked the moderate impact of price increases in other regions. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday, the producer price index (PPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month, the biggest increase since June, and economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected a median of 0.2%. PPI increased by 3% compared with the same period of last year, the biggest increase since the beginning of 2023. The core PPI excluding food and energy increased by 0.2% from the previous month and 3.4% from the same period of last year. The CPI report released on Wednesday showed that the core inflation rate in the United States remained firm for the fourth consecutive month. This series of data brought uncertainty to the outlook of prices and interest rates next year, especially when Trump threatened to raise import tariffs after taking office. Economists pay close attention to the PPI report because several of its breakdown data will affect the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) that the Federal Reserve is concerned about. Although PCE data will not be released before the Fed policy meeting next week, central bank officials will have a good understanding of the data according to CPI and PPI reports. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, but the pace of interest rate cuts is expected to slow down next year.American stock index futures maintained a downward trend, with S&P 500 E-MINI futures down 0.3%, Nasdaq futures down 0.6% and Dow Jones futures down 0.1%.
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide